NFL DFS Packers vs 49ers Showdown Breakdown (Sunday, September 26): Is Trey Sermon a Free Square?

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Sunday’s NFL action concludes with a clash between the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers at 8:20 p.m. ET.

If you are unfamiliar with the NFL DFS to a game format it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” position and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5 times the fantasy points, but it will also cost 1.5 times the salary. This means that if you want to register Aaron Rodgers at Captain and take advantage of the point bonus, you will have to pay $ 17,700 against $ 11,800.

FanDuel’s unique game format includes one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5 times the Fantasy Points, but it doesn’t cost any extra paychecks. This takes away a bit of strategy and makes the goal simple: to get your top performing player to the rank of MVP.

Studs

Rodgers was unusually poor in Week 1 against the Saints, but rebounded with a strong performance against the Lions in Week 2. He had four touchdown passes and 255 passing yards, averaging 12.41 adjusted yards per attempt.

Sadly, he’s going to face a much tougher test this week against the 49ers. The Lions have one of the worst defensive units in football, but the 49ers are expected to be one of the best. They haven’t been as dominant as expected to start the year – they currently rank 11th in the Football Outsiders DVOA pass defense – but that is in part due to some yards and the points accumulated against them during the garbage period.

Still, Rodgers will take the field as a home favorite, a role he’s always enjoyed. Not only is he one of the best to cover the spread in this situation, but he’s also averaging 23.45 DraftKings points in these contests. That’s good for an Over / Under +2.22 on DraftKings (according to the Trends tool).

He has the upper ceiling projection in our NFL models and should be a popular captain.

The 49ers’ defense is good in a lot of things, but their secondary is uninspiring. Three main cornerbacks are ranked 33rd, 64th and 86th out of 100 qualified for the position by Pro Football Focus.

That means Davante Adams should have a field day in this game. He has become one of the most consistent producers, regardless of his position in the fantasy world. It was like he barely sweated against the Lions last week, but he still racked up eight catches for 121 yards.

PFF gives Adams the biggest advantage of any receiver on the entire Week 3 roster, so he’s definitely an attractive option.

Aaron Jones was the recipient of three touchdowns last week, and he added a fourth rushing touchdown. Any four touchdown performance is a random outcome, but Jones’ day seemed particularly hit and miss. Two of his touchdowns came on quick passes that were basically like transfers, so I don’t think you can count on the ones pushing forward.

The 49ers also represent a much more difficult clash for Jones, who hasn’t really taken advantage of his opportunities this season. He’s averaged just 3.5 yards per carry in his first two games, so his fantastic value comes almost exclusively from receptions and touchdowns. His property might be a little higher than usual after last week’s performance, so I’m okay with making him disappear there. I’m much more interested in Adams, and the two players aren’t particularly well correlated.

Jimmy garoppolo completes this level and he’s managed to return value to each of his first two starts. He also had a vulture touchdown by Trey Lance during week 1, but Lance didn’t see the pitch at all last week. This is a positive development for Garoppolo’s fantastic stock.

There’s no guarantee Lance won’t make an appearance against the Packers, but it could actually work in our favor from a fantastic point of view. This will likely keep Garoppolo’s ownership reasonable, but it has the third highest ceiling projection of our models. There will even be a number of people lining up Lance, and I expect those people to pay the rake on Sunday night.

Trey’s sermon

I highlight Sermon in its own special section on this slate. Every now and then a player will appear as such a massive value that it becomes almost impossible to make them disappear. The sermon falls into this category on Sunday.

The 49ers had a terrible chance of injury with their running backs to start the year. Rahim mostert is absent for the year with a knee injury, while Elie Mitchell and JaMychal Hasty will both be sitting against the Packers. This leaves Sermon to serve as their primary running back despite a healthy start to the season. The 49ers have activated Kerryon Johnson of the practice squad, but it seems unlikely that he’s too big in the equation.

Sermon has had exactly one carry so far this season, but he was a third-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He was extremely productive in college, averaging 7.5 yards per carry, and he has decent athleticism measurements for his height.

Sermon is basically free for $ 3,000 on DraftKings, so expect him to be the most possessed player on the list. The question then becomes “should I eat the chalk?” It’s always tempting to knock out a player who could control 80% of the property, but he’s just too good to pass up. His projected plus / minus on DraftKings is nearly five points higher than that of his closest competitor, and he just doesn’t have much loss potential with his current salary. I prefer to seek to diversify my queues elsewhere and potentially leave more pay than usual on the table.

Midrange

Back to our regular programming. Deebo Samuel and George kittle are the best wide receivers for the 49ers, and they headline this price range.

Kittle is one of the best tight ends in football, but Samuel has been the clear alpha for the 49ers so far this season. He leads the team with a 35.7% market share and Kittle is in second place with just 16.1%. Samuel also racked up over 53.5% of the 49ers’ aerial yards, which is the second-highest score in the entire league.

Samuel’s clash against the Packers is an interesting one. They have one of the best cornerbacks in football in Jaire Alexander, but Samuel plays all over the roster. That means he’ll have a handful of snaps against Alexander, but he should have plenty of routes against other Packers corners as well. Kevin king and Eric Stokes the two stand out as winnable clashes for Samuel, making it a solid clash overall.

Kittle has arguably the best individual game. The Packers couldn’t stop TJ Hockenson last week, and they only rank 24th in DVOA from position.

Overall, I would give Samuel a slight edge based on his absurd volume to start the year, but both guys are definitely viable.

Robert tonyan is next on the price spectrum, and it’s almost always a fade for me. His fantastic value comes from scoring touchdowns, and while he’s been very good at it, that makes him a volatile game from week to week.

Brandon AïyukThe disappearance of was a monster story in week 1. He’s basically in the niche at the moment, which has allowed other receivers to put him on the depth board. He saw more snaps in week 2, but a 54% snap share isn’t exciting. He also saw only two targets. You should be able to grab Aiyuk with minimal possession, but he’s still too expensive for me.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a more attractive target. He didn’t catch a single pass last week, but his cap is extremely high considering his role as a stretcher on the pitch. He has racked up over 45.5% of the Packers’ aerial yards this season, which is the seventh-highest score in the league. If he can get behind the 49ers’ high school once, he’ll likely end up in the winning lineup.

Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard complete the Packers’ receiving corps, but neither player was involved much to start the year. You don’t need it in your roster either, but if you want to play one Cobb seems like the guy. He’s only played 22% of the team’s offensive snaps this season, but head coach Matt LaFleur has said he wants to get him “more” involved in offense. It might just be a coaching speech, but it’s worth considering. Cobb is also significantly cheaper than Lazard on FanDuel, which is another point in its favor.

Quick shots

  • Defenses and kickers – These options are still in play in the single play format, but be sure to correlate your lineups around them.
  • AJ Dillon ($ 2,600 on DraftKings, $ 7,500 on FanDuel): Most players in this price range should have a minimal roster given the presence of Sermon. Dillon wasn’t much of a factor last week, but he should be a constant thorn on Jones’ side.
  • Mohamed Sanu ($ 1,400 on DraftKings, $ 6,500 on FanDuel): Sanu’s instant share declined to just 29% last week, and he’s only seen one target in each of his first two games.
  • Trent Sherfield ($ 1,200 on DraftKings, $ 6,000 on FanDuel): Sherfield is the 49ers receiver I like the most in this price range. He’s the only 49ers wide receiver other than Samuel and Kittle to have seen more than two targets this season, and he touched a touchdown in Week 1. His snap share also declined last week, but he has more of a receiver role in the offensive. as Sanu or Aiyuk at the moment.
  • Kyle Juszczyk ($ 800 on DraftKings, $ 5,500 on FanDuel): Juszczyk has a few hitting shots out of the backfield, and he might see a few more shots than usual given the 49ers’ injury situation.


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