One of the best underused tools on the FantasyPros website is the Report of expansion or deceleration. I was recently reintroduced to the tool while conducting research for the launch of the 2022 FantasyPros Draft Kit.
Here are my best takeaways for quarters after digging into the Report of expansion or deceleration.
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Top 10 Takeaways for Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Quarterbacks (2022)
- Kyler Murray is undervalued despite QB1’s obvious overall upside.
- Not enough people talk about Jameis Winston.
- Joe Burrow is overrated as a QB6 fantasy. It is written on its ceiling.
- Kirk Cousins is the most underrated quarterback in fantasy football at QB15 ADP.
- Teddy Bridgewater should be drafted/listed in every 2QB format. Don’t fish out Tua.
- Zach Wilson (or Joe Flacco to start the year) should be able to handle at least one Jets WR. In 11 games Wilson started last season, the Jets WR1 (combined efforts of Davis, Moore and Berrios) posted a 24% target share (7.5 targets per game) and averaged a fantastic 14.2 points per game (WR25 last season).
- Dak Prescott will be overrated in the overhaul and will leave a lot on the table with a 33% drop rate in 2021 – the highest among the top 14 ADP-based QBs. I can’t say that his current offensive situation — although his rushing might mitigate those factors — is any better than last season. Therefore, it will probably be quite volatile.
- Russell Wilson at QB11 ADP may be too rich, and I think he belongs on the same level as Cousins, Carr and Stafford. He’s the only top-12 drafted QB who has failed to hit that mark at least 50% of the time in 2021.
- If Derek Carr is going to have a fantastic career/outlier year, it has to be 2022. He needs his TD rate to rise and he has the weapons to make it happen.
- The end-of-round QB (if Trey Lance is off the board) is Justin Fields. QB3, QB9, QB8 and QB10 in his last four starts. Good for a 44% QB1 hit rate given his nine full games played. Same as Carr. Bears QB’s ADP is QB17.
Projecting the QB score each year isn’t terribly complicated as ADP is usually on hand. But it’s important to understand and deal with the massive drop in production when walking around QBs ranked outside of the top 12; more often than not, you won’t find a QB with the top six weekly perks.
As you can see from the graph above, the weekly hit rate for the top six drops significantly from the 35% average for QBs with the top 12 ADPs.
The same goes for QBs coming out of the top 15 QBs. The success rate of callers finishing as top 12 options – at a ratio of over 50% – is not happening.
Therefore, in both SuperFlex formats – where you need to prioritize drafting at least two quarterbacks, if not more – I would highly recommend having at least two QBs with ADPs in the top 15. Preferably , one should be a top-six draft passer with legitimate top three on the overall upside.